Bloomberg Surveillance · Friday, September 4, 2026
A stronger-than-expected jobs report is unlikely to deter the Federal Reserve from its current stance, as average hourly earnings show no significant wage pressure. The focus remains on upcoming inflation data, particularly CPI, to guide future monetary policy decisions.
“If we print a negative print here, the three-month average on payrolls will be the lowest ever if we got a hike. So the precedent for hiking with negative three-month average payrolls, you've never seen it before.”
“I mean, at the margin, of course, it plays into the narrative and it confirms that the labor market is not something to worry about. Really, the decision is going to be a question about does inflation end up coming in kind of below 0.3, and that's likely going to be the deciding factor here.”
“Average hourly earnings stay the same on a year-over-year basis. And so at this point, if you are arguing that the economy doesn't need higher rates because there's no wage pressure, then you've still got that argument. And that's something Chris Waller was making yesterday.”