Excess Returns · Thursday, September 3, 2026
Ben Hunt believes the market is underestimating the probability of a recession. He predicts that this increased risk will lead to a significant rally in gold prices, projecting a potential increase of at least 20%.
“And the idea here is that the market is not pricing in enough risk.”
“I mean, the market is only pricing in about a 5% chance of a recession by the end of next year. And I think that's wrong.”
“And that's going to cause a significant rally in gold. And so I'm looking to buy gold. And I think that it's going to rally by at least 20%.”