Excess Returns · Thursday, September 3, 2026
Ben Hunt believes the Federal Reserve will need to significantly raise interest rates, contrary to market expectations of a single 25 basis point hike. He anticipates a rally in short-term bonds (2-5 year Treasuries) with at least a 100 basis point gain.
“And the idea here is that the Federal Reserve is going to need to raise interest rates. And they're going to need to raise them significantly.”
“And the market is not pricing that in. I mean, the market is only pricing in about a 25 basis point hike by the end of this year.”
“And so I'm looking to buy short-term bonds, like two-year Treasuries, three-year Treasuries, five-year Treasuries. And I think that they're going to rally by at least 100 basis points.”