Excess Returns · Thursday, September 3, 2026
Ben Hunt links rising oil prices due to the Iran conflict to increased inflation and higher short-term interest rates. He also notes that the US consumer is again in trouble, with savings depleted and stimulus fading, exacerbating economic concerns.
“This disastrous Iran war with very few exit paths, exhausted inventories on distillates and crude all over the world.”
“Higher for longer oil prices means inflation, and a one-way bet on higher interest rates in the short term.”
“And you've got an all-time low in savings rate. We've spent our money. We don't have our savings.”