All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg · Friday, July 3, 2026
A BCG study indicated that the cost of capital for long-term rates is around 8-11%, yet half of large US companies cannot deliver returns exceeding this. This highlights the difficulty and complexity of running a business, making AI providers a potential risk if they leverage client data to compete.
“I read this really interesting study from BCG. And what they looked at was the return on capital employed or ROCE of various businesses. And this is what's incredible. The cost of capital has now, with long-term rates, moved back to what its long-run average is, which is around 8 to 11%.”
“The problem is that half of large US companies now cannot deliver returns that exceed that. That is a really big problem. And then second, there's a further problem, which is that persistently lower returns, uh, in the, you know, one, two, three, four, 5%, is about one in seven companies all around the world.”
“So in that lens, when you, you know, think about what Sachs said, which is you have this company that comes to you and says, I have a magic box. And all you have to do is tell me everything you're doing, and this magic box will make everything better. But then all of a sudden, from the shadows, the magic box says, you know what, I've decided to compete with you. That is a huge risk.”