Wealthion · Tuesday, September 1, 2026
David Rosenberg notes that slowing nominal wage growth suggests more underlying slack in the labor market than the current unemployment rate indicates. He believes the U3 unemployment rate is a lagging indicator and that deeper analysis, like looking at nominal wage growth, provides a clearer picture.
“The thing all along is I'm watching nominal wage growth because in this sense the truth will be in the price. If the labor market was really tight, nominal wage growth would not be slowing down.”
“Nominal wage growth is slowing down visibly. That's telling me that there is more underlying slack being built up than a 4.1% unemployment rate would otherwise suggest.”
“M >> uh but I the Fed focuses on the U3. I don't know why. U not very sophisticated in my opinion because you really have to get analytical to find out what's going on.”