Wealthion · Tuesday, September 1, 2026
David Rosenberg emphasizes the labor market as the most crucial indicator for the fourth quarter, suggesting the Fed has been neglecting it. He warns that repeated negative non-farm payroll prints, combined with a stabilizing labor force and rising unemployment rate, could signal a recession.
“Well, I mean, there's a lot of things on the top of the radar, but I I think the most u important from say an interest rate standpoint uh is um what happens to the labor market.”
“heading into the fourth quarter of the year, Maggie, is going to be the labor market.”
“If we get sequential months of negative non-farm payrolls, then what happens if that coincides with the labor force finally stabilizing, it's not going to zero. Uh, and the unemployment rate starts to go up.”