Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, September 2, 2026
Frances Donald argued that the US labor market is no longer defined by job creation but by a shortage of workers, particularly among retirees. She indicated that initial jobless claims are stable and layoffs are low, suggesting a healthy labor market but one facing a fundamental challenge of insufficient supply.
“This is an incredibly tight labor market, and it is no longer being measured by job creation. That's not the meaningful gauge of labor market health anymore, in large part because we are just losing supply. We're losing supply across the gamut, but particularly amongst retirees.”
“And so the challenge for the U.S. job market is not to create jobs, it's to make sure it has enough workers.”
“So we are expecting to see what we've always seen. Health care is going to drive, the unemployment rate is going to stay low, and job creation is going to slow as the break-even rate remains around 20K. That will be enough for this U.S. job market to stay very tight.”