Bloomberg Surveillance · Monday, August 31, 2026
Bob Elliott highlighted that despite the focus on AI, the U.S. consumer, the backbone of the economy, is showing significant weakness. He pointed to soft PCE and retail sales numbers, as well as more timely data, suggesting consumer spending is fading, which could surprise the equity market.
“Very few people are talking about what's going on with the consumer. Because the consumer, whether you like it or not, the US economy is a consumer economy, and that's what's driving it. And there, actually, you see a lot of interesting softness under the surface.”
“I mean, the PCE numbers were pretty weak. The retail sales numbers were pretty weak. Suggests some exhaustion. And more timely numbers, whether it be TSA or Bloomberg second measure measures, suggest actually the consumer is starting to fade pretty quickly.”
“That would be a big surprise for the equity market in the second half.”