Excess Returns · Monday, August 31, 2026
Kevin Mure suggests that midterm election volatility is currently underpriced in the market. He points to seasonal trends where September often sees increased volatility and argues that implied volatility for midterms is not fully priced in.
“He thinks the midterm volatility is underpriced right now.”
“One is if you just look on a seasonal basis, this is the point upon which the vol rally starts. Like if you go back in time and look over the years, September is often a more volatile month and we get a pickup in terms of volatility that way.”
“So if you go look through time, the midterm years are more volatile, right?”
“But ultimately, what I am, so one thing is that I believe that the forward volatility is not being fully priced in for just any midterm. Like, there's not enough midterm volatility priced in, right?”