The David Lin Report · Tuesday, September 1, 2026
Despite hawkish signals from Fed Chair Warsh, Colin Martin, head of fixed income strategy at Charles Schwab, maintains a low-conviction view that the Fed might hold rates in September. He indicates that while some committee members favor hikes, they haven't yet found a definitive reason, but this could change if August inflation data is unexpectedly high.
“So the bottom line is that, uh, pre the, uh, prior to the, uh, Jackson Hole symposium, on the Charles Schwab website, it says that, well, your notes, you've sent, we expect the Fed to remain on hold for now, but it's a low conviction call. For now, given inflation and uncertainty. Nothing he said today has changed that stands for now. Correct, Colin?”
“Uh, we think that, uh, there's, there's a handful of committee members that, you know, have voted to hold. And they're probably, you know, they're very aware of how high inflation is. And I think they're looking for that reason to get off the, you know, the hold seat and move to the hike seat.”
“But as we sit right here at the end of August, our views unchanged that we think that they can remain on hold unless we get some, some positive surprises, you know, a stronger labor market or higher than expected inflation.”