The David Lin Report · Tuesday, September 1, 2026
Following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike on September 16th has surged to 66%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The report highlights the tool's historical accuracy, especially closer to the event, suggesting this is a significant indicator of future monetary policy.
“Since Jackson Hole ended last weekend, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike on September 16th, the next FOMC meeting, jumped to 66% according to the CME FedWatch tool.”
“In my time as reporter and on YouTube, I've never known the CME FedWatch tool to be inaccurate, especially the closer it gets to the actual event.”