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The David Lin Report · Tuesday, September 1, 2026

CME FedWatch Tool Shows 66% Probability of September Rate Hike Post-Jackson Hole

Following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike on September 16th has surged to 66%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The report highlights the tool's historical accuracy, especially closer to the event, suggesting this is a significant indicator of future monetary policy.

personKevin Warsh

The tape

2 quotes
Since Jackson Hole ended last weekend, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike on September 16th, the next FOMC meeting, jumped to 66% according to the CME FedWatch tool.
In my time as reporter and on YouTube, I've never known the CME FedWatch tool to be inaccurate, especially the closer it gets to the actual event.
Heard on The David Lin Report — “Fed Rate Hike Shock: Why Markets Suddenly Fear September, published Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Heardvine summarizes and quotes with attribution and timestamps, and links to the original everywhere.
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CME FedWatch Tool Shows 66% Probability of September Rate Hike Post-Jackson Hole — Heardvine