Bloomberg Surveillance · Monday, July 27, 2026
Monica Gerr predicts a gridlocked Congress following the midterm elections, exacerbated by potential oil shocks and rising gas prices. Historically, increases in gas prices lead to greater seat losses for the incumbent party, making affordability a key issue for voters.
“So when we're thinking about midterm outlook, just historically the sitting president's party loses about thirty seats. Then you add in the potential for an oil shock, which we have been experiencing. So if you have an increase in gas prices from the prior January so January twenty twenty five to this year through this year, you're looking at average seat losses of thirty two versus six in a normal year where you don't have that gas price component. So affordability is huge here. Layer in energy housing, you've got an uphill climb.”