Odd Lots · Tuesday, September 1, 2026
Adam Posen suggests that the current GDP measurement might be underestimating the true economic value of AI, particularly due to its impact on consumer 'utils' and business transformations. He argues that while direct productivity gains are hard to quantify, the indirect benefits and the eventual business adoption of AI could represent significant, uncaptured economic value.
“Does that show up in GDP? No. So this is why we usually think the big productivity gains and the disinflation stuff comes further down the pipeline. It's when we're on the track, I should say, not the pipeline. When the businesses start transforming.”
“So like It was really cool that Intel and Texas Instruments and whoever else was building chips in the 90s were following Moore's Law and all that, and that showed up a bit in the GDP. But the gains really happened when McDonald's and Walmart and UPS and everybody transformed their businesses to take advantage of it.”
“But the second thing, though, which is the more contentious part, is there are always, in technological revolutions, there are recurrent statements that GDP or whatever economists are using are just not capturing the true value.”