Excess Returns · Friday, August 14, 2026
According to Jim Paulson, the residential real estate market shows no signs of activity, with the affordability index at record lows, making home buying less affordable than before the 2008 crisis. This lack of affordability is reflected in the market statistics, contributing to the overall weakness for consumers.
“Um, if you go to the next one, we have, uh, nothing in the residential real estate market, there's, you know, whatever housing statistics you want to look at, it's it's just sort of laid there, there hasn't been any activity.”
“This is just the affordability index, which is laying here at some of the record lows, it's almost less affordable to buy a house today than it was before the great housing crisis of O8-09.”
“Uh, and that's showing up in the numbers. Uh, so, you know, from the retail side, to residential spending, to jobs, there's just not much there for the consumer.”