Excess Returns · Friday, August 14, 2026
Jim Paulson observes that the ISM Services index, representing a larger part of the economy, has recently rolled over after a slight increase. He notes that the index remains at historically low levels, which is rare during an expansionary period, further supporting his concerns about economic growth.
“But if you look at the ISM from service sector, which is the bigger part of the economy, that's what you're looking at in this chart. That's gone up. A little bit the last few months. It's now rolled over again, a little.”
“And it really is no different than what was done for much of the last, you know, 18 months, and if you look at that thing that I circled, that's really low compared to the history of the ISM services index. It's it's not deep recession, but it's extremely rare to have this into an expansion.”