Excess Returns · Friday, August 14, 2026
Jim Paulson believes economic growth will slow more than currently appreciated, with a greater concern for the consumer side of the equation. He anticipates a sentiment shift from inflation fears to growth fears and predicts the Fed will begin easing policy before the year ends.
“Um, I'm still, I guess, in the camp that, uh, economic growth is going to slow more than people appreciate at the moment. And, uh, inflation is not going to be the issue.”
“And, uh, I think that's going to lead a little bit to a sentiment shift from inflation fear to growth fear or recession fear, quote unquote, something that's just kind of gone haywire here this year.”
“And again, I, I won't be surprised at all. In fact, I kind of expect the Fed to be easing here before the year's out.”