Bloomberg Surveillance · Friday, August 14, 2026
Julian Emanuel believes the market is too complacent about the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. While the consensus expects a hold, he anticipates the probability will increase closer to the FOMC meeting, potentially unsettling markets.
“Well to be fair, and again, this is one of these perceptions and which is going to make Jackson Hole very interesting.”
“This will be interesting because you know, our call is that they actually will stay on hold in September.”
“But it's not clear to me that what the Market is pricing right now is the story that worsh wants the market to take into the FOMC meeting. As in, there's a little bit too much call it complacency around the definitive idea that they're not going to hike. So, you know, prediction markets whatever, the Bloomberg will show that. I think we're at about a thirty percent chance now. I think we think that's going to nudge higher between now and September sixteenth and that's one of the things that might unsettle markets.”