Optimal Finance Daily · Friday, August 14, 2026
Darrow Kirkpatrick suggests that to be absolutely certain of not running out of money in retirement, individuals should consume no more than 2 to 3% of their assets annually in the early years. This conservative approach accounts for the inherent unpredictability of the future and the potential for unforeseen economic conditions, which may warrant lower returns than historical averages.
“Given the current historical unprecedented economic conditions, he has suggested using bond and stock returns that are 2 to 3% lower than past averages.”
“If you want to be absolutely certain you don't run out of money over the course of a lengthy retirement, you'd better consume no more than 2 to 3% of your assets each year early on.”
“In the end, no retirement calculator can predict the future. It can only tell you which direction you're headed.”