Odd Lots · Friday, August 14, 2026
The unfolding El Niño event is poised to significantly contribute to making 2026 the warmest year on record, even surpassing the impact of ongoing global warming. Experts predict that this El Niño, combined with the background warming trend, will likely lead to record global temperatures in 2026 and potentially 2027.
“It's nearly locked in a virtually guaranteed record temperature for twenty twenty seven, even though we haven't actually had that year unfold yet. It's no coincidence that the hottest years on record have almost always been El Nino years. Right when you take a warming trend and then you impose an anomaly on top of that, you're just going to get these outliers.”
“Twenty twenty six has a non trivial chance of being the warmest year on record, not simply because of global warming, but because of this emergent al nino. So it is already kind of just increasing global temperatures over what they would have been an absence of this event, and it's nearly locked in a virtually guaranteed record temperature for twenty twenty seven, even though we haven't actually had that year unfold yet.”