Odd Lots · Friday, August 14, 2026
The global nature of El Niño events, where multiple regions experience impacts simultaneously, is a key factor in amplifying economic shocks. Unlike localized weather events that allow for recovery, the widespread and concurrent effects of El Niño can lead to systemic impacts on global markets, similar to the cascading effects seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“What I think is kind of interesting about Alminho and why Almino is an interesting analog for the impacts of wider global warming, which is a kind of a universally experienced You know, there's a high degree of correlation in the impacts of global warming. Right, It's not simply a heat wave here. It's a heat wave here, here, here, and here all at the same time, all experiencing loss at the same time, Which is one of the reasons why I think it's this simultaneity of disparate regions experiencing hazards and experiencing losses that then can lead to these up aggregating market forces that systematically depressed growth and alter where capital investment can go.”
“The global simultaneity of it is being key, Like, Okay, other events you just bounce back from. I mean everything must have some effect. You never like bounce back from anything that perfectly back to trend. But this simultaneity, of course, we saw that during COVID and the ripple effects from that. And so when you have this weather pattern that is truly global in nature and sort of very I guess, predictable in the sense that you know what regions they're all going to get hit, it sort of makes sense to think about it in these terms of like, oh, there are real long term costs, especially if they're intensifying during a trend of global warming.”