The David Lin Report · Wednesday, August 12, 2026
Thomas Hayes predicts a diminished likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike by the end of the year, shifting the market consensus towards a potential rate cut. He believes this is supported by recent inflation and employment data, aligning with the Fed's dual mandate.
“And the idea of a hike before the end of the year, which was consensus when we last spoke, is now, uh, dramatically diminished and the idea of a cut before a hike, uh, will start to become more material in coming weeks and months.”
“So, uh, one, uh, inflation came in more tame than expected, and that's, that's with a backdrop of elevated, relatively elevated energy prices, uh, even though it's been fits and starts.”
“Uh, we're moving down the spectrum towards where I where I'd expect we'd be towards the end of the year, which is more, more likely a cut, certainly no hikes, and, uh, and whether it's in the, you know, before the calendar turns or in the first quarter is immaterial.”