Bloomberg Surveillance · Thursday, August 13, 2026
Technical analysis suggests similarities between the current market setup and 1996, where the S&P 500 entered overbought territory with interest rates at current long-end levels. However, instead of a pullback, the bull market extended for years, suggesting a possibility of prolonged expensive market conditions.
“Yes, you're making a very good point here, and I've been asked a lot of questions, especially to compare what the technical setup is in twenty twenty six and compare it with two thousand.”
“Back in nineteen ninety six we started getting this and P five hundred getting into over both territory, and interest rates were similarly sitting where the long end of the Treasury yield is right now.”
“However, instead of getting a pullback or a correction, the bull market extended for another four years before we've seen the dot dot com crash. So I think today we are at nineteen ninety six if we compare the charts the longer term charts.”
“We are getting into overbot territory, which is telling me that the market is very expensive. However, this doesn't call for immediate better markets unfolding, and I think there is a very very good probability of the market staying quite expensive for an over both territory for number of years before we get to see this deep correction.”