Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, August 12, 2026
The market is pricing in a roughly 50/50 chance of a September rate hike, but upcoming data like the PCE and CPI reports, along with employment figures, will be critical. Historically, the Fed is unlikely to raise rates following a negative employment print, though recent data may have been distorted.
“I mean right now. I think you mentioned at the front of the show that the FED Fund's futures for September is pricing in basically a fifty to fifty chance of a raid hike or staying pat.”
“But i'd also remind investors that we have, you know, Jackson Hole in August, we have another PCE report, we have another CPI report before the next FED meeting as well, and then another Employment report.”
“But it would be very unusual for the Fed to raise rates historically, and we've seen a negative print within two months of a FED meeting.”