Excess Returns · Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Dom Rizziolan believes the current AI spending cycle is only about halfway complete, drawing a parallel to the Nasdaq's performance from Netscape's launch. He notes that the launch of ChatGPT roughly three years ago marks a similar point in the current AI cycle.
“the replication of your 1998 thesis is that we are nowhere near the end of this capital cycle. I mean, I think you've talked about we're about halfway there. So, this would look more like a speed bump on that thesis, then the end of the road.”
“And if you look at that, and then you put, uh, the launch of Nasdaq from the launch of Chat GPT through today. It's literally the halfway point, right?”
“So, so Chat GPT was launched roughly three years ago. Uh, I know this because I took over our global technology strategy on December 1st, 2022, which was the day after Chat GPT was released November, November 30th, 2022.”