Bloomberg Surveillance · Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Libby Kendrell of PIMCO forecasts a split Congress after the November midterm elections, with neither party expected to hold a significant governing majority by 2027. This scenario is seen as potentially leading to more gridlock, rather than compromise, in Washington.
“Libby Kendrell of PIMCO, writing our base case for the November midterm elections. Continues to be a split Congress. Regardless of the outcome, neither party is likely to have a real governing majority come twenty twenty seven. Yay mor Grid Luck Livy joins us. Now it seems like markets like that, so maybe that isn't positive.”
“We do like it.”
“Yeah, I mean, honestly, even if this is a wave election for Democrats and there are some inklings of that in terms of the generic ballad, in terms of the enthusiasm gap, Democrats are much more enthusiastic about voting this election. Those are sort of two indicators that we are monitoring that have sort of suggested wave environments before. In terms of the House, the sort of there's a much lower ceiling for how many seats Democrats can win because of the redistricting that has happened. So honestly, a great night for them would be a kind of a plus ten majority, plus fifteen majority. We're not talking about the sort of plus forty majority that we have seen in other sort of midterm elections. And that is just even if that comes to pass, and I think more likely is that Democrats, you know, have a five seat majority in the House, and then maybe Republicans have a fifty to fifty Senate, and that is like neither party. Don't think it's done to have a governing majority.”