The David Lin Report · Monday, August 10, 2026
David Lin notes that prediction markets, such as Kasushi, reflect a bullish sentiment for the S&P 500. Currently, there's an 82% chance the index will end the year above 7800 points and a 64% chance it will exceed 8000. For the S&P 500 to surpass 8200 points, Welsh suggests a need for significant drops in oil prices and continued positive economic data, including lower inflation numbers.
“So prediction markets have been pretty accurate in calling for any event that they're predicting, the closer they get to the actual event date.”
“So this will be end of the year. Right now, there's an 82% chance that, um, the S&P will end up above 7800 and a 64% chance to end up above 8000.”
“In the rare case that it goes to above 8200 points. What would need to happen? That's a 27% chance only.”