The David Lin Report · Monday, August 10, 2026
Jim Welsh, founder of Macro Tides, anticipates a 4-7% pullback in the stock market in the coming weeks, despite recent rallies. He notes that while the S&P 500 is reaching new highs, some underlying averages are not agreeing, suggesting a potential retracement before further upside. Welsh attributes the current market strength partly to positive earnings and a lack of Fed rate hikes, but believes attention will soon shift back to the Fed's potential actions.
“So, you know, you got five up, you're gonna see a retracement rally of a retracement pull back of that rally. Beyond that, I think there's going to be another leg higher. I just think we've gotten a lot of good news in last few weeks.”
“I think attention is going to focus on the Fed. And if you look at the two-year Treasury yield, historically, going back decades. That has typically moved before the Fed changes the funds rate.”
“So my point is when I look at that, um, I think the minus 23,000 overstates the degree of weakness.”