Bloomberg Surveillance · Thursday, August 6, 2026
Despite Middle East conflict and sanctions, oil prices (WTI and Brent) are not reaching the predicted $150 per barrel. Paul Sank explains this is due to several factors: China cutting oil imports by 5 million barrels a day, increased production from Venezuela and the UAE following sanctions relief, and a drawdown of US strategic petroleum reserves. These combined effects suggest approximately 2 million barrels per day are off the market, which should theoretically lead to a significant price increase.
“We've got this war in the Middle East, we've got rush of sanctions, plus they're in a war. Why isn't oil rent like one hundred and fifty bucks?”
“China has cut its imports now by five million barrels a day. We've got increased production, or rather increased oil coming to market because the Venezuelan sanctions have been released. UAE has kicked up production significantly.”
“So the net effect that is about two million barrels a day off market. So that leads to a fifty percent price increase off the of the pre war price of fifty six dollars a barrel, which is what it was in January before the market priced in the war.”