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Excess Returns · Thursday, August 6, 2026

Macro Risk Indicator Trends and Market Normalization

Chan Yang explains that the recent decline in the macro risk indicator, from around 70 to 40, is attributed to policy tightening and economic slowing. He views this trend as a normalization of the market, leading to a potentially more balanced and resilient market going forward.

personChan YangpersonJack Forehand

The tape

4 quotes
You guys boil this down to a macro risk indicator, which I think is very, very cool. Um, and we're going to put up the chart here of the macro risk indicator.
Jack Forehand
You said that's kind of been driven by a lot of the policy tightening and the economy kind of slowing down. Can you talk about that?
Jack Forehand
Yeah, so, you know, when we think about the macro risk indicator, it's obviously going to be a combination of all the factors that we've discussed. So, you know, you have growth, inflation, policy, liquidity, right?
Chan Yang
And, you know, obviously, as we've seen, you know, monetary policy has been tightening, interest rates have been going up, inflation has been coming down. And, you know, obviously, the economy is starting to slow.
Chan Yang
Heard on Excess Returns — “4% Inflation. Stretched Valuations. Why Is the Market Still Risk-On? | Tian Yang, published Thursday, August 6, 2026. Heardvine summarizes and quotes with attribution and timestamps, and links to the original everywhere.
Transcribed via Gemini audio transcription · $0.06
Macro Risk Indicator Trends and Market Normalization — Heardvine