Bloomberg Surveillance · Thursday, August 6, 2026
Recent labor market data, particularly the ADP employment report, suggests a tighter market than headline job gains indicate, with job changers seeing significant pay growth of seven percent. This is attributed to supply constraints, especially in sectors like construction where hiring rates are high but job creation is limited due to an aging workforce and retirements. White-collar jobs have also reaccelerated, contrary to some narratives about AI's impact.
“It's the why that's important. Is this a low or high number because demand is high or low, or so apply is hire low. Supply is a big factor, which is why that job changeer pay growth is.”
“In construction. So we're seeing the hiring rate for new construction workers high. It's the highest job changer pay growth we track. It's almost fourteen percent. That's the highest we've seen on record. And yet the number of jobs that were created in July was a thousand.”
“When you look at the overall labor market, finance information, professional business services actually increased jobs relative to the second quarter. So yes, AI is having an impact, but it's not this brand sweep of impact that is part of the popular narrative.”