Odd Lots · Friday, August 7, 2026
Experts suggest that climate change, specifically warming ocean waters, is the most probable cause for the current sardine shortage, leading to their migration to less accessible areas. While overfishing has been a concern in seafood, current assessments of sardine fisheries, like those certified by MSC, indicate strong regulation and enforcement, pointing away from overfishing as the primary culprit.
“So the first that seems most likely is climate change generally, so there are warming waters in the mid Atlantic that forage fish like sardines, like anchovies, like mackerel are very very sensitive to water changes, so when the water temperature changes, they are likely to migrate to colder waters.”
“So it might not even be that there are less sardines. It might simply be that the sardines have migrated somewhere that the commercial fishermen have a lot of difficulty accessing.”
“I think one thing, it's interesting this circumstances. From what I can tell, like overfishing is not not the main culprit. So I mentioned MSc earlier. That is, you know, the certifying body that we most lean on and look to, the Monterey Bay Aquarium Seafood Watch at a mouthful.”