Excess Returns · Saturday, June 27, 2026
Chris Mayer notes that SpaceX's valuation, reaching $2.6 trillion and trading at 145 times revenue, is significantly higher than Google's historical metrics. He recalls mocking Google's then-high valuation and expresses concern that SpaceX's current valuation might be unsustainable, suggesting investors might get a chance to buy in at a lower price later.
“So SpaceX is trading at like, when it hit 2.6 trillion, it was like 145 times revenue.”
“And, you know, we talked about Google again, I think it was like 80 times, and went to 100, 100 20 times earnings. SpaceX doesn't have any, you know, earnings, so we can't even really talk about that.”
“I mean, all these big winners go through huge drawdowns and, you know, Amazon is one that always comes up, 90% drawdown from peak to trough and, you know, who's to say?”
“And so I think at some point there's going to be some sort of reckoning.”