Excess Returns · Friday, July 3, 2026
Andy Constantin suggests that the rapid growth in Artificial Intelligence might lead to a situation where there isn't enough economic "pie" to support the earnings growth expectations of all semiconductor and tech stocks. He uses the analogy of GDP as a pie, which can grow, but the demand for microchips and related technologies could outstrip the available portion for individual companies.
“There's too many people that too many stocks that expect massive earnings growth, and there's just not enough pie for all of them to be successful.”
“At a high level, GDP is what we all make and what we all buy. And those are the, and that's it. And so all the stuff that we buy, some of it's going to be food, some of it's going to be gas, some of it's going to be housing, some of it's going to be clothing, some of it's going to be education, some of it's going to be token, some of it's going to be microchips, semiconductors. Uh, some of it's going to be laptops, everything. It all goes in there.”
“And so it's possible that the AI boom can generate more tools that can help us make more stuff, which makes more GDP. And so the pie can grow, and it is growing. It's growing pretty rapidly.”