The Rational Reminder Podcast · Thursday, August 6, 2026
Barry Ritholtz asserts that Wall Street professionals, despite their valuable skills in understanding their space, are generally poor at predicting future market returns. He quotes John Kenneth Galbraith, stating there are 'two kinds of forecasters, those who don't know and those who don't know they don't know.'
“As long as they're not trading on inside information about when the Venezuela assault is going to happen or when the bombs will start dropping in Iran, I'm not talking about inside information being used to make bets and prediction markets. Just general predictions, Wall Streeters are terrible at that. They have a lot of valuable skills, they focus on understanding their space, they can provide some insight and context, but they don't really predict.”
“I like to channel John Kenneth Galbraith, who said there are two kinds of forecasters, those who don't know and those who don't know they don't know.”