Wealthion · Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Jesse Felder identifies the 10-year Treasury yield as the most critical chart in the world, serving as the baseline risk-free rate. He suggests that strong nominal GDP growth and the Federal Reserve potentially lagging behind inflation indicate that yields are poised to rise.
“Well, I've been saying for at least, you know, the the over the course of this this whole year, probably going back into last year, that the 10-year treasury yield is the most important chart in the world because it's the risk-free rate of return, you know, that everything is kind of based off of.”
“When you look at the fact that nominal GDP is still growing so rapidly and something like the Taylor rule says that the Fed is behind the curve by as much as 300 basis points, right? It makes sense that the long end of the yield curve is going to start to move away without, you know, basically expressing a lack of confidence in the Fed's willingness to bring the inflation problem back under control.”