Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart · Tuesday, June 30, 2026
QI Research's analysis of hard data indicates that the U.S. economy experienced a recession in the first three quarters of 2025, characterized by net job losses. Danielle DiMartino Booth highlighted that this data, derived from employer headcounts, goes beyond the technical definition of a recession.
“So, just to clarify, non-farm payrolls that's reported every, you know, every non-farm payroll Friday, that is a survey. And that survey is checked against the hard data from the quarterly census of employment and wages, which requires all US employers of all sizes, more than 95% of them report head count on a quarterly basis. So that survey data is checked against the hard data from the quarterly census of employment and wages. And that, from US employers, told us that in the first, second and third quarters of 2025, there were net job losses. So that that goes beyond the definition of a recession.”
“Okay. Um, great, great clarification. And if I took good notes again of our previous conversation, um, I think you said the US economy lost about 600,000 full-time jobs in 2025. That's about the order of magnitude you're talking about.”