Odd Lots · Monday, August 3, 2026
The global effort to build independent supply chains for critical minerals like tungsten could lead to oversupply if multiple countries pursue similar strategies without a clear buyer of last resort. This 'replication of spending' across geographies, driven by anxiety over trade security, could create inflationary pressures.
“But if everyone's trying to create their own supply of tungsten, even if it's a relative small supply, even if it doesn't actually take that much capital to create a new tongsten. Mind, if everyone's doing it all at once and then you don't have a definitive buyer of last store at the end, then like people are going to think that we're going to become oversupplied.”
“So you have the double whammy of more spending on non productive things because they're strategic, and the diminishment because of anxiety about security of free trade. So you get the double lots and lots of spending and replication of spending across multiple geographies in countries.”