All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg · Monday, June 29, 2026
Statistician Nate Silver discusses the overwhelming impact of partisanship on US elections, stating that in 2028, we will likely be able to predict election outcomes in most states with high confidence due to this polarization. He contrasts this with the unpredictability of individual games or player performances.
“Partisanship is the gravity that dictates every election in the US, right? Like my job, don't worry, I will get criticized if if we say, oh, whatever, Gavin Newsom or AOC is a 55% favorite and they lose, but like, but 43 of the 50 states, I mean, we could probably predict right now with 97% confidence who the vote for in 2028. And it's not because reading it's because polarization and partisanship are very powerful forces that we can't seem to to escape from.”