Bloomberg Surveillance · Monday, July 20, 2026
With only twelve effective working days remaining this year, Congress faces the critical need to pass a continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown on October 1st. While there's an optimistic hope for a reconciliation bill, the probability is estimated at only 30%. The Democrats are favored to retain control of the House, while the Senate outcome is seen as more uncertain.
“Well, the one thing that has to get done is that we do need to avoid a shutdown on October first.”
“Basically, Yeah, we are. And last time we saw what Dems did. They shut down the government for what forty three days or something, So they're playing with fire. Republicans are trying to get out in front of that. They have a bill that they entered is very early to pass, a cr that will extend us past the election, so they know to be anxious about it. That's the one thing we really have to pass. There's an optimistic hope that we would get a reconciliation bill, but I'm only at thirty percent on that.”
“Yeah, I'm at ninety at large. Yes, I feel pretty comfortable with it, and it's just historically correct to think that one party control would alienate.”