Bloomberg Surveillance · Tuesday, July 21, 2026
A significant factor in controlling inflation is the slowing shelter component, which has seen a minimal year-over-year increase. Real-time housing market data, including a slowdown in the NAHB Housing Market Index and homebuilder sentiment, supports this trend, potentially helping to dampen inflation exacerbated by higher oil prices.
“But the key to us is looking at shelter. It's all about shelter. Housing is the economic cycle. And if you looked at that last CPI report, shelter was up zero point one percent year over year.”
“So we think that that can keep feeding into the inflation. It's thirty five percent of CPI, So we think that slowing shelter component, which you know, look, mortgage rate's still six seven percent. That is not helping the housing market recover.”
“The NAHB on Housing Market Index, it slowed to its lowest level in years. The other day, home builder sentiment is slowing, et cetera.”