Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Max Kanner notes that US ten-year real yields are at their highest since October 2023. He suggests that while current low sequential earnings growth expectations may mask this, sustained increases in real rates could pose an issue. He also questions whether the market is extrapolating too much strength from the first half of the year into the second.
“When you look at something like the ten year US real yield at the highest level going back to October of twenty twenty three, what do you do with that?”
“I think the first step is really going to be earning. So we are what we call that danger zone. I've been talking about it in this program quite a lot in the last six months as well. We are actually in the middle of that danger zone. But as long as you've got these really really low sequential earnings growth expectations for the next two to three weeks, it doesn't matter. Then. I think if real rates really continue to push a little bit higher, then that's going to be an issue.”
“And isn't there then a bit of a downside surprise potential, nothing recessionary, but just the US not being as exceptional. Just great, but not as exceptional.”