The David Lin Report · Wednesday, July 1, 2026
EJ Antoni cautioned that falling oil prices may provide temporary relief but warned of impending price increases due to lingering supply chain disruptions from events like the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He noted that refilling depleted global oil reserves will create a 'positive demand shock,' adding upward pressure on prices.
“Well, unfortunately, you know, we're going to see kind of a repeat of what we saw in 2020 and 2021.”
“We're going to see exactly the same thing this go around because of the disruptions that have stemmed from the straight of Hormuz being closed for so long, from the oil supply shock that we've had.”
“And let's not forget that as the oil supply shock goes away, as oil does finally get out of the straight of Hormuz, we're basically replacing a negative supply shock with a positive demand shock. And again, econ 101 tells us just as negative supply shock is going to put upward pressure on prices, so now a positive demand shock also puts upward pressure on prices.”
“The difference being that you can spread that demand shock out over a longer period of time. So what is this demand shock? We have depleted oil reserves not just here in the United States but around the world at literally the fastest rate on record because never before have we seen such a large supply chain disruption.”