Bloomberg Surveillance · Thursday, July 23, 2026
Jim Karen estimates that the tipping point for 10-year US Treasury yields, beyond which significant negative market turns occur, is around 4.85%. He notes that the economy's growth and strong corporate earnings in a higher nominal GDP environment have shifted this threshold higher than it was previously.
“So? I do, And I'll first say that it's a moving target. Right, So if we if we were having this conversation six months ago, I'd say that this level would Be a you know, a tipping point.”
“But what we realize is that the economy has grown, earnings have been very strong, we have higher nominal growth. We're living in a higher nominal world these days. Nominal GDP growth is about six percent right now, which is pretty good. So that tipping point for ten year treasury yields that turns things, you know, much more poorly. I you know, right now, my estimate would be around four point eighty five percent. So we're we're close, but we're not there yet, Jim.”