Bloomberg Surveillance · Friday, July 24, 2026
Sophia Kearney of FAH and Financial suggests the Federal Reserve will likely hold rates steady through the first half of next year, but a rate hike is more probable than a cut in the current year. She points to rapidly changing economic conditions, particularly the rise in oil prices, as a key risk factor impacting inflation expectations.
“We think the FED will be on hold for the remainder of this year and through the first half of next year. That being said, there is more likelihood of a hike than a cut.”
“You know, I think the big thing is one you guys just hit on it. Things are changing very rapidly. Right a week and a half ago after CPIPPI is maybe a different picture than where we are now with WTI crewed at ninety and Brent almost at one hundred.”
“But that being said, right, more likelihood of a hike than a cut without a doubt this year. And I think the really big risk is where do we go from here with what we've seen in oil, with what we see in expectations, and from what we have.”