Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, July 15, 2026
A forecast suggests the S&P 500 could reach 9000 by the end of next year, supported by continued margin expansion and a shift towards subscription-based models. This target reflects a historical average of high single-digit to low double-digit returns, with the current multiple expected to remain elevated as long as margins continue to rise.
“So we're at nine thousand by the end of the next year on the SMP. We think that that's if you look at what that really represents.”
“It does, but it's a year and a half of average equity returns, you know, kind of high single digit, low double digit returns. That's on average what the SMP does. But we think that that's the direction to travel.”
“If you look at where margins have gone, so too has the multiple followed, and until that stop ups, I think that's right. So what used to be a kind of sixteen times you know, fair value we think is somewhere right now between twenty and twenty two.”