Excess Returns · Tuesday, July 14, 2026
Eric Pachman contends that the decline in the labor force participation rate, particularly for older demographics, signals an economic downturn. He emphasizes that this trend is observable in granular data but is obscured by the focus on the headline unemployment rate.
“Go look at the people that are not in the labor force right now. You can actually see the revisions that are happening as the BLS improves their model and the census improves their model. And you can see the number of people that are working age people just disappear.”
“And I'm here to tell you that the tool is there. And so you want to answer your question on the number employed people. Just select the series that says employed. And you'll see it.”
“The numbers are showing that we're headed for a recession. And, you know, I'm sure that the Fed will do something to try and, you know, curb inflation. But it's just not going to be enough.”