Excess Returns · Tuesday, July 14, 2026
Eric Pachman asserts that the traditional unemployment rate is an inadequate indicator for predicting an impending recession. He argues that underlying data, such as the falling labor force participation rate, already reflects a crisis that the Federal Reserve's focus on the unemployment rate overlooks.
“And right now, I can tell you, investor, person that cares about America, you will not see the recession coming with the unemployment rate. It's already in the data. The depression, the recession, the crisis. Let's call it the labor crisis.”
“The world has changed. Like they've just kind of painted themselves into a corner to say the unemployment rate is the one ring that rules them all.”
“And so, you know, I'm a data guy. I just look at the numbers. And the numbers are showing that we're headed for a recession.”