Excess Returns · Tuesday, July 14, 2026
Eric Pachman highlights a significant decline in labor force participation for men aged 45 and over, reaching a record low of 54.7%. This trend contrasts with women in the same age group, whose participation is increasing, driving overall labor force expansion.
“So men, oh boy, that chart is deaf. So men is down to 54.7%. The lowest level by far on record. The prior minimum was back in the 1990s where it was 57.5%. It went all the way up to 62.9%.”
“Women. Oh, well, they're much better, which this actually jives with a piece that we just wrote about. Women are the driver of our labor force expansion. And so you have to thank them.”
“And so you're just like, wait a second, where are they going? Well, they're 75 plus now. And it's like, well, the actual age of people didn't change. But the whole BLS and the whole census runs on models and trends. And we just wrote this. There's this great quote, "All models are wrong, some are useful." Well, they just made their models a little more useful. Still wrong.”