Bloomberg Surveillance · Tuesday, July 14, 2026
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates in the calendar year 2026, according to current economic indicators. Data such as PMI at 53.5 and a three-month average payroll increase of 125,000 suggest that the conditions for a rate hike are not present.
“I don't think we get a rate hike in the calendar. You're twenty six. I'll give you three things to think about. Number one, I think is the one we all know. Look at forward inflation expectations, they're relatively anchored by any metric, whether.”
“Number one PMI right now is fifty three and a half. FED Doesn't hike from there. Just look historically, that's not where your majority. Of hikes come from. The three month average on payrolls right now is about one hundred and twenty five K. If you look at a distribution of FED action. When the three month average of payrolls is in that one hundred and one hundred and fifty range, the likelihood of a hike any point over the next six months is less than twenty percent.”
“So, whether it's the payroll data, whether the PMI data, I think the likelihood that we get this FED in particular moving to hikes in twenty six is low. Reserve the right to change the opinions, so the facts on the ground change as always, but that's kind of the job of what we do.”